New CD27 poll shows Dem voters are making up their minds in primary race

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And Eliott Rodriguez says it’s good news for him

A new internal poll from Eliott Rodriguez‘s congressional campaign contains one number that should make the other Democrat in the District 27 primary, Robin Peguero, nervous.

It’s not Rodriguez’s 54%.

It’s the 18% that represents the number of undecided voters remaining in Florida’s 27th Congressional District Democratic primary for the chance to challenge Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar.

Because that number is shrinking.

According to the Bendixen & Amandi survey released Monday, Rodriguez now leads the Democratic field with 54% support, compared to 28% for Peguero, a former federal prosecutor who served as an investigator on the Jan. 6 committee, while 18% remain undecided.

On its face, the poll gives Rodriguez exactly the headline he wanted.

He’s above 50%. He’s ahead by 26 points. And he’s the first candidate in the race to claim majority support.

But the more interesting story may be what has happened since the campaign’s previous survey.

Back in March, Rodriguez was already leading the field with 43%, compared to 16% for Peguero and 14% for environmental entrepreneur Richard Lamondin. A sizable 27% of voters were still undecided.

Read related: Eliott Rodriguez’s own poll shows early primary lead in his congressional bid

Since then, Lamondin has left the congressional race to pursue a state Senate seat.

And voters appear to be making choices.

The undecided number has dropped from 27% to 18%.

Peguero has nearly doubled his support, climbing from 16% to 28%. But Rodriguez has also gained, jumping from 43% to 54%.

That’s the trend line the Rodriguez campaign wants everyone to notice.

Team Rodriguez also noted that he leads in every demographic, with:

• 64% among Cuban-American voters 
• 61% among Black voters 
• 60% among vote-by-mail voters 
• 61% among voters age 65 and older 
• 57% among voters ages 50-64
• 56% among men and 52% among women

The campaign’s argument is straightforward: the more Democratic voters learn about the candidates, the more they gravitate toward the former CBS Miami anchor.

And there is evidence supporting that narrative. Rodriguez entered the race with something few congressional candidates possess: universal name recognition. For decades, he sat in South Florida living rooms delivering the news. Most politicians would have to spend hundreds of thousands to  get the kind of familiarity Rodriguez started with on Day One. The question has always been whether that familiarity would translate into votes.

According to this poll, it is.

“This campaign has always been about earning people’s trust,” Rodriguez said in a statement. “For decades  I’ve listened to this community, told its stories, and stood with families through their biggest  challenges.

“Voters are looking for leadership focused on lowering the cost of housing, insurance,  healthcare, and everyday expenses while standing up to the Trump administration and defending  the rule of law, our democracy and our freedoms – that’s exactly what this campaign is about,” he added.

Read related: CD 27 primary shrinks as Democrats, dollars line up behind Eliott Rodriguez

But before anyone starts measuring curtains for a congressional office, there are a few reasons to keep the champagne on ice.

First, it’s an internal poll. Bendixen & Amandi International conducted 300 interviews among likely Democratic primary voterst from June 15-18.  Campaigns release polls for one reason: They like the results.

Second, Peguero is hardly behaving like a candidate who thinks he’s down for the count.

He just qualified for the ballot after months of speculation that he might switch races. He didn’t.

He’s raised nearly $1 million.

He’s secured endorsements from major national Democratic organizations, including the Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC, Congressional Black Caucus PAC and Latino Victory Fund.

And Peguero — who joined insider Democrats at the David Jolly/Gwen Graham rally earlier this month at Florida International University, better part of a year building a campaign organization throughout the district. (Rodriguez was also there).

Candidates don’t usually walk away from that kind of investment. Especially not when there are still eight weeks until Election Day.

“I’m a fighter. I’ve been fighting for this district on the trail for the past year,” Peguero said in his statement after he qualified.

“I fought on behalf of democracy as an investigator on the January 6th Committee. And I am the most prepared candidate to fight for families squeezed by rising costs while Donald Trump raised tariffs, started a war in Iran on the taxpayers’ dime, slashed Social Security and Medicare and revoked TPS,” Peguero said. “I’ve taken Trump on before, and I’ll do it again in Congress.”

What this poll may actually suggest is something less dramatic but potentially more significant.

Democratic voters are finally beginning to focus on the race.

For months, many simply weren’t paying attention. At least a quarter of them weren’t.

Now, the electorate appears to be settling in.

And as voters start choosing sides, Rodriguez currently appears to be winning a larger majority of them.

Read related: The CD27 Democratic primary may not be as done as some people think

Whether that’s because of his name recognition, his fundraising, his endorsements, his message, or simply because voters believe he has the best chance of defeating the Republican incumbent remains unclear.

But one thing is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Rodriguez isn’t merely holding his lead. According to his campaign’s own numbers, he’s converting uncertainty into support.

The challenge for Peguero is that every voter who makes up his or her mind is one fewer voter left to persuade. And with fewer than one in five voters now undecided, the clock is ticking.

Of course, this is Miami politics. Eight weeks is practically a lifetime.

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