Florida House 113's mystery poll: Testing the knives before the knife fight

Someone is polling in House District 113. And like every good Miami political ghost story, nobody wants to admit they paid for it.

A text message last week led Republican voters in the district — which includes Key Biscayne, Little Havana, other parts of Miami and some Coral Gables — to a poll that asked a bunch of questions about the likelihood and favorability of Frank Lago, Bruno Barreiro, and Tony Diaz, the three GOP candidates running to replace Vicki Lopez, who was appointed Miami-Dade commissioner in November. Voters were also asked how they feel about Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis — naturally. Because someone wants to see how hard to lean — or not — on them.

Then came the ballot question for the August primary. Definitely and probably support choices were included for each candidate. Translation: this wasn’t casual curiosity. This was strategic mapping.

But the real tell? The “information” push questions. And that’s where we get delicious signs of the primary campaign to come.

So, who’s behind it?

Lago has the most money, but it can’t be his. Because none of the push questions — are you more likely or less likely to vote for this person if you knew this little tidbit — were positive. Not a one. Unless the Lopez endorsement is considered positive, they were all rather “less likely” trigger questions, posed to push the voter away from Lago.

Frank Lago’s “information” questions only tested negative material. He is colored as all shadow, no shine. It certainly can’t be his own poll. If it is, he should fire somebody.

Bruno Barreiro, a former county commissioner who ran for congress and lost in 2018, was presented a little more fairly, but mostly positive. He got a glowing recap of his legislative record — condo reforms, oversight, pro-growth policy, “golden passport” provisions — in language that reads like it came straight from a campaign mailer. He got a strong conservative credential: stood with Donald Trump from the beginning, earned credibility, America First, bold stances, blah, blah, blah. He got a mild hit on his effort to create a countywide booting standard — with critics saying it empowered booting companies.

And then a mention of his part in the Marlins Park stadium deal — the politically radioactive detail — framed as benefiting wealthy owners with taxpayer dollars.

Notice something? Two positives. And two negatives. But the negatives are calibrated.

The booting issue? Policy-level criticism. Inside baseball. The Marlins stadium? Old news, and frankly baked into Barreiro’s brand already. It could be a strategic, preemptive strike. Voters will be tired of that argument by August.

Meanwhile, the positives are crafted to resonate directly with Republican primary voters — pro-growth, oversight, Trump loyalty.

That’s not random. That’s shaping contrast.

Lago’s push questions had no glowing legislative wins. No conservative credibility language. No pro-growth poetry.

Just hits. That’s not message testing. That’s vulnerability probing. You don’t test only negatives on a candidate unless you’re trying to see which attack sticks.

Given that Lago currently has the money advantage and establishment backing, this smells less like self-harm and more like opposition reconnaissance. Someone wants to know how soft Lago is under pressure.

And then there’s Tony Diaz, the quiet third candidate in this primary. There were absolutely no push questions on him. Not a one. Which makes you think it’s either his poll or whoever did it doesn’t think he’s a viable candidate, with would be a mistake.

Diaz is a dark horse, but he is gaining the field on the ground with his creative tiki provisional office — in light that there is not representation in this session — and his active and real social media posts.

And its’s not like there’s no low hanging fruit. Diaz has already dipped his toe into two public offices — withdrawing from Miami’s special election in District 4 and applying for appointment to the vacant Miami-Dade District 5 seat when Higgins got into the runoff — and could be cast as a first-time wannabe looking for a seat anywhere.

Okay, maybe that’s weak. After all, he could just really, really want to be a public servant. He is definitely running as an outsider on the “Florida is not for sale” message. He could be really well-intentioned. After all, he’s not a politician — yet.

And that’s probably why there was a complaint filed with the Florida Elections Division over an alleged omission in his campaign finance report — a complaint filed by none other than Lago’s neighbor. Diaz told Ladra it’s an oversight and he’s not going to bother with fighting it or giving it any air. He is fixing it, paying the fine and moving on. There are still a lot of doors to knock on.

Why are Trump and DeSantis important? The inclusion of their favorability questions is not filler. It’s segmentation. There’s even a question on whether the voter is more a “Trump Republican” or more of a “traditional conservative Republican.”

Pollsters want to know if Trump voters will dominate this electorate? If DeSantis fatigue is real. Does loyalty move numbers in this district? Can someone run to the right without falling off the map?

This is why there was a question asking if the voter

If Barreiro’s Trump credential tested well, that’s valuable data. If Lago’s negatives hit harder among high-Trump voters, that’s even more valuable. This isn’t about popularity. It’s about pressure points.

But what this poll really suggests is that this race isn’t settled. If it were, nobody would be stress-testing narratives this early.

The money leader is being tested for damage tolerance. The experienced former commissioner is being tested for viability. The third candidate is only being measured for spoiler potential.

And nobody wants their name on the invoice. Classic.

Here’s what happens next: If Lago’s negatives polled strong? You’ll see mailers. If Barreiro’s Trump loyalty tested well? You’ll see digital ads reminding you he was “there from the beginning.” If the Marlins Park hit still moves voters? That dinosaur gets resurrected. And Tony Diaz will still be ignored — which is maybe the best thing that could happen to him.

This isn’t a poll. It’s a rehearsal dinner. And someone is about to decide who gets served first.

Stay tuned. Because House 113 just went from sleepy primary to knife drawer slightly open.

You can help get more independent, watchdog government reporting of our local government and political campaigns with a contribution to Political Cortadito. Click here. Ladra thanks you for your support.

Bruno Barreiro, Florida House, Frank Lago, House Seat 113, Tony Diaz

Florida House 113’s mystery poll: Testing the knives before the knife fight added by Ladra on February 16, 2026
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