Redistricting ruling could cripple Carlos Curbelo in 2016

The Florida Supreme Court ruling Thursday that mandates the redistricting of eight of the state’s 27 congressional districts — an act that will likely domino-effect its way into a fully new statewide map — is seen as a real boon to Democrats who may be able to take more red seats from Miami to the panhandle in the next presidential election.

Almost half of the demanded changes are in South Florida’s districts represented now by U.S. Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mario Diaz-Balart and Carlos “Crybaby” Curbelo, who is the only one facing a serious challenge already in what will be one of the most closely watched elections in the country.

And he’s the one in real trouble.

Diaz-Balart is probably breathing the easiest in District 25. His area will likely gain all of Hendry County, rather than just a piece of it, but he still has Collier and Northwest Dade, including hyper Republican and high performing Hialeah. He’s safe.

Districts 26 and 27, however, are another story.

The judges said the districts, belonging to Curbelo and Ros-Lehtinen, respectively, violate the Fair District amendment of 2010 by splitting Homestead in two. Cities are supposed to stay in one district whenever possible. And worse, on page 92 and 93 of the ruling, the justices say that Homestead was split intentionally to benefit the GOP, as evidenced by emails between the GOP consultants who corrupted the process.

So, redistricting, in this case, means that either Curbelo gains half of Homestead that now belongs to IRL or loses his half of Homestead to her. He would prefer to do the latter. Because Homestead is overwhelmingly Democrat. Although they are not partisan seats, the mayor and the county commissioner that represents Homestead are both Democrats. In fact, the less south Curbelo has to go (his district includes the liberal Keys, which he lost in 2014), the better for him.

But don’t expect Ros-Lehtinen to give up more red space in her district so easily. She has already said that she will continue to run for Congress until she is dead or incapacitated and Curbelo’s district is already more Democratic, already a threat. Even though he beat former U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia, who was in the middle of an absentee ballot fraud scandal, we have to remember that President Barack Obama won that district by five points. Hell, even former Gov. Charlie Crist won by seven.

That is what national pundits call, over and over again, one of the most flippable seats in 2016 with a viable threat from Crist’s running 2014 running mate, former Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairwoman Annette Taddeo.

So there are two tracks of thinking among Republicans in the State House and Senate, where these maps will be redrawn. One is to give Ileana all of Homestead. She can take it. She’s really strong and even has tons of Democrat supporters. But then they question if they should risk making another district more Democrat when this one is already compromised. Better have two solid red seats and one heated race than two really hard tests and one easy A.

Also, they’d rather lose a freshman “rising star” RINO (more on that later) than risk a veteran foreign affairs leader with gravitas. Especially with Florida State Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez — who sources say is being actively groomed for that seat — practically nipping at IRL’s heels.

J-Rod said he was focusing on his House seat, where the sophomore still has two more terms, or four more years after 2016.

“I live in the district, so I’m really watching how the district is drawn,” Rodriguez told Ladra. “I’m not closing any doors, but I’m focused on my work as a state representative.”

That’s good. Because most of the sources Ladra spoke to think that all of Homestead will go to Curbelo, which must be raining a bit on his parade.

Conversely, this likelihood is certain to have Taddeo dancing a little jig. Ladra once thought that former Miami-Dade Democatic Party Chairwoman — who has lost three elections, the last as lieutenant gov with Crist — could not get elected to this seat. But now I think it may be the only seat she can get elected to.

“Am I happy? Yes,” Taddeo told Ladra. “But I’m happy because it helps the voters.

“It’s not right that Homestead is split in two. It’s not right that it was done to benefit one party. And let me say that it was not right, way back when Democrats were the majority, for the Democrats do do the same thing,” Taddeo said.

“If I’m doing a dance, I’m doing a dance with the voters who are the real winners here. Because now they get to pick their representatives themselves instead of the having party picking them.

“He should be worried,” she said about Curbelo, reminding Ladra that she and Crist won that district by 7 percentage points.

Sure, she’s not Charlie Crist but that can work as much for her as against her. Also, she was the Hispanic voice for that ticket statewide, and the district is 70 percent Hispanic.

“I was the one doing a lot of the talking,” she said.

Annette Taddeo, Carlos Curbelo, Congressional redistricting, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mario Diaz-Balart

Redistricting ruling could cripple Carlos Curbelo in 2016 added by Ladra on July 13, 2015
View all posts by Ladra →