David Rivera: Damned if he did, damned if he didn’t

David Rivera: Damned if he did, damned if he didn’t
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The 305 political world is abuzz with the news that former U.S. Rep. David “King Nine Lives” Rivera jumped campaigndavidinto the congressional race in his old district, which he lost in the 2012 presidential elections to Congressman Joe Garcia.

Jaws everywhere dropped. People gasped and shook heads. The other Republican candidates in the primary reacted with shock or disappointment. Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo, considered the Republican Party’s pick and endorsed on TV Sunday by Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, expressed disappointment.

I’ll say he’s disappointed. Curbelo — who hadn’t really paid attention to the primary until now — has been amassing funds and endorsements from GOP heavyweights like Jeb Bush and working on his campaign for months, trying hard to be perceived as the front runner despite a poll that shows former Miami-Dade Commissioner Joe Martinez in pole position, and Rivera steps in and becomes the Republican front runner on Day One?

Read related post: Rivera is back in District 26 race

And, yeah, Ladra said Rivera is already the front runner in the primary, and not just because Curbelo — who is not known in that district — has not spent much of his million dollar treasure chest yet. It’s because the people who have voted for David Rivera for years despite the allegations that have dogged him for years, will vote for him forever. He is still sorta the incumbent there in District 26.

Don’t believe me? Ask Republican voters. Not in the Keys or in Florida City, where the general might be a big deal. But with the Cuban-American super voters — the 4s and 5s and absentee ballot casters who will be more motivated to vote now that they can help David get back into office again and fight Fidel Castro.

They don’t care that Rivera got into a little grudge match with Miami Herald political writer Marc Caputo, who caught the former Congressman ducking his questions on video as he stood in line ready to file in Tallahassee. Ladra at first thought that Rivera could have handled it better than saying “you can email me” about 17 times and laughing Screen shot 2014-05-04 at 4.35.41 PMat Caputo’s attempts to ask legitimate questions about campaign financing and the Sternad investigation (even though it only had 748 views as of Sunday on YouTube anyway).

But, actually, once I thought about it I realized that Rivera’s base — some of whom might still have that “I don’t believe The Miami Herald” bumper sticker on their cars — will love that.

In fact, if the primary were tomorrow, Ladra would put money on King Nine Lives today.

Some malas lenguas have told Ladra that Rivera does not expect to win the primary even. While that is laughable at any time — Rivera always expects to win — the argument is that DR, as friends and foes alike refer to him in text messages, is using his candidacy as a defense strategy. You know, because federal authorities are more reluctant (read: more reluctant when its convenient) to investigate or indict a politician or candidate for fear of being accused of partisan politics.

Really? Really? Okay, then why did the alleged investigation into Rivera’s role in plantidate Justin Lenar Sternad‘s campaign begin during the runoff? Was it politically motivated back then, as Rivera seemed to imply in his interview with Oscar Haza on Mega TV Thursday, where he dropped the bomb announcement he would run?

Observers also say that the not guilty verdict against former Hialeah Mayor Julio Robaina gives Rivera hope and perhaps fueled the fire that burned in him to run. And Ladra certainly agrees that any alleged case against Rivera — which he has never even recognized — is likely based on less evidence than the feds had against Robaina.

Two of the three political attorneys I spoke with agreed with the defense theory, which was planted in Ladra’s head by a Democratic operative close to Garcia and played out on radio and TV over the weekend. Even Michael Putney posed Screen shot 2014-05-04 at 4.25.01 PMthe possibility on his weekly show on WPLG. Michael freaking Putney!

“It’s the first thing I thought of,” one lawyer told Ladra. “It could be a way to at least delay things until after August or after November.”

But the third attorney echoed the nagging feeling Ladra had that that kind of tactic could also backfire. After all, only a couple of weeks after Ladra reported in February that Rivera was considering a run for his old seat, the feds went all the way to Nicaragua to pick up Rivera’s friend (read: ex-squeeze) Ana Alliegro so they could hold her and, reportedly, pressure her to talk about the politician’s alleged role in the fake campaign.

“The feds can get ticked off and ramp up the investigation or leak out more information to the press. I think it could work against him,” the third attorney told me.

“This speaks to David’s ego,” he said. “Normally, my advice to someone in this situation would be to lay low.”

And that is precisely the point that Ladra wants to make. Because there are people in the 305 political world who, had Rivera not run, would have said precisely the opposite of what they are saying now: That the former Congressman was hiding or “laying low” and would not run again because of the alleged investigation or his alleged involvement in the 2012 plantidate’s race, or because he was guilty of a number of other sins thrown at him.

In other words, Rivera is damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.

Reached after almost three days trying, Rivera finally answered the phone. He refused to talk to Ladra about the allegations or Screen shot 2014-05-04 at 4.26.08 PMeven acknowledge any investigation — he said on the Oscar Haza show that no law enforcement agency has ever come out and said that he is a target of an investigation — but Rivera did laugh heartily at the thought that he was running as a defense.

“I’m running to serve my community, as I have for many years previously,” he said. I rushed in a question about how he could have stayed out of office and worked behind the scenes or as a consultant as he has been doing — pairing investors with opportunities or what not — and avoid more negative attacks in the media and/or scrutiny of law enforcement.

“A life without a cause is not worth living,” Rivera said, brushing me off so that I could only get one more question in: What is that cause?

“My community. My people. Here and in Cuba,” he said.