Mayor Vince Lago is safe as ballot is set in Coral Gables November election

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The filing deadline came and went at noon Friday and Coral Gables voters now know what November’s ballot will look like.

And Mayor Vince Lago is probably sleeping very well tonight.

Perennial candidate and conspiracy enthusiast Rip Holmes and attorney Laureano Cancio, who lost to Rhonda Anderson in 2025 with just 4% of the vote, both filed to run for mayor, which means that Lago has opponents in the technical sense of the word. But let’s be honest: barring a meteor strike, a federal indictment, or a sudden citywide obsession with YouTube rabbit holes, Lago is headed toward re-election.

So we have that male toxicity and ego to deal with for two more years. Great.

But the real action isn’t in the mayor’s race. The real action is in the commission races. Because that’s where the power lives.

And nobody understands that better than Mayor L’Ego.

Read related: Mayor Vince Lago’s shadow looms large over early Gables commission wannabe

Everyone in Coral Gables political circles knows that Nestor Menendez was recruited to run against Commissioner Melissa Castro, the mayor’s most persistent critic and often the lone voice willing to challenge the Lago consensus from the dais. And looking at his campaign finance reports reveal that he has many of the same donors as Lago.

Everyone also knows that political consultant Nikki Whiting jumped into the open Group III race almost immediately after Commissioner Ariel Fernandez announced he would not seek re-election. The timing wasn’t exactly subtle.

Neither were the endorsements rolling in before the filing paperwork was even dry.

Las malas lenguas say that both Menendez and Whiting are the mayor’s preferred candidates. Whiting because he knows that Gonzalo Sanabria makes everyone cringe. Jose Riera, the other would-be candidate and Vice Mayor Anderson’s accountant, withdrew.

So, basically, Ladra is going to call this one right now. With the huge GOP support that Whiting has behind her, she is the commissioner elect. Now, Lago can concentrate on the other race.

Lago was heavily invested in the last commission race, where he tried to help Ivette Arango O’Doski and Alex Bucelo against Castro and Fernandez, respectively. And one can safely assume he will use his time and energy — and campaign funds — now that he is unchallenged, helping Menendez try to beat Castro, who will very likely keep the grassroots, antidevelopment and anti-Lago support.

But why? Why spend political capital? Why work that hard to get someone else elected? Why get involved in the races at all if you already have the votes?

Because Vince Lago already has three. That’s all he needs. Anderson and Commissioner  Richard Lara have been reliable allies (read: pocket votes) for years. On most major issues, the outcomes are often predictable before anyone even walks into chambers.

Three votes wins. Three votes controls the agenda. Three votes approve projects. Three votes hire city managers. Three votes runs the city.

So why go after five?

Because this isn’t about governing. It’s about governing without resistance. There is a difference.

Castro has been a thorn in Lago’s side from the moment she arrived. She asks uncomfortable questions. She demands documents. She challenges narratives. She refuses to automatically accept whatever City Hall is selling.

Read related: Coral Gables Commissioner Ariel Fernandez leaves dais for a ‘new Cuba’

Then there’s the Ariel Fernandez seat.

Fernandez is a former Lago ally who developed a reputation for asking his own questions, broke from the establishment script and generally acted like an independently elected official — at least until he seemed to check out months ago around the same time his attention reportedly turned to a post-Cuba education framework.

That can be annoying if you’re trying to run a smooth operation — and/or get your way. A handpicked successor is easier. A predictable successor is even better. A loyal successor is best of all.

Because five votes doesn’t just mean victory.

Five votes means unanimity. Five votes means fewer awkward headlines. Five votes means fewer embarrassing debates. Five votes means fewer public disagreements that can turn into memes. Five votes means control.

Complete control.

And if there is one thing Coral Gables residents should understand about Vince Lago by now, it is that he has never confused having enough power with having too much power.

Read related: Coral Gables’ new voter-approved November election is 6 months away

This is the same mayor who built a political machine powerful enough to dominate local elections, crush challengers, out-fund opponents and largely dictate the city’s political direction for years. The same master gaslighter mayor who referred to himself as “the king” and complains about decorum while he sends misogynistic mailers out to deride a colleague. The same mayor who forced out two downtown restaurants — most recently Fritz and Franz — because of political allegiances.

The irony is that Coral Gables’ commission-manager form of government was designed specifically to avoid concentrating too much power in one place. The commission is supposed to provide checks and balances.

Different perspectives. Independent voices. Occasional disagreement. Healthy tension.

Democracy can be messy that way.

But if November goes exactly the way City Hall insiders hope, Coral Gables could end up with something much cleaner.

A mayor. Four allies.

And a dais so harmonious that commissioners may eventually finish each other’s motions.

Which may sound wonderful to the people at City Hall.

The question for voters is whether it’s wonderful for everyone else.

This kind of independent, government watchdog reporting is crucial to transparency and democracy. And more so every day. Help shine a light on the darker corners of our community with a contribution to Political Cortadito. Click here. Ladra thanks you for your support.