Miami Beach poll: Hispanic voters reject mayor and pals

There are still a whole lot of voters who are undecided about who to pick in the Nov. 2 Miami Beach election. But among those who are, Mayor Philip Levine holds a tiny two point edge over opponent David Wieder.

Except with Spanish speakers, who apparently prefer Wieder to the incumbent.

These are the findings of the latest, unscientific Survey Monkely poll, done about two weeks ago, which also showed voters soundly reject all three candidates on Levine’s handpicked slate.

The survey shows a stark reversal difference between those who answered in English (30% Levine to 28% Wieder) and those who answered in Spanish (40% Wieder to 23% Levine). Wieder’s margin with Spanish speakers is far more comfortable than the incumbent’s margin with English speakers.

Why is that? Two words: Rebecca Towers.

The future of the city’s waterfront public housing property, where a lot of voting viejitos live, has become quite the question and controversy after it was revealed (right here on Political Cortadito) that Levine’s campaign consultant, David Custin, was getting paid $10,000 a month to lobby for its redevelopment, along with the adjacent marina.

Naturally, Custin dropped the client from the lobby log with the city and says any potential plans for enhancing the parking lot (yeah, right) have since been abandoned yadda yadda. The mayor has had to come out — damage control — to say that nothing will happen to Rebecca Towers. But people don’t really believe him. They may be old, but they’re still lucid. And David Custin wasn’t getting paid $10K a month for nothing. And they know this conversation can be picked up after the election.

This shift between English and Spanish seeking voters is important. Because Levine counts on those votes. He pays for those votes — not just with pastelitos, like everybody else, but with big salsa parties at the convention center, busing in the AB voters by the dozens in air-conditioned comfort. The 65 and over Hispanic vote is key to Levine’s success because he has been able to more easily convince them of his greatness. They aren’t so convinced anymore. He’s losing them.

And if the undecideds get split the same way, this could be a narrow upset.

But while Levine still has a chance to hang on, the numbers are far less forgiving for his cadre of would-be rubber stampers.

Each of his slate mates are losing quite comfortably, again even more so among the Spanish speakers. While there were still a lot of undecideds, the numbers indicate that Mark Samuelian has a lead over John Elizabeth Aleman, Mark Weithorn has a lead over Ricky Arriola and Kristen Rosen Gonzalez is the leading candidate out of the clusterbunch group, where Levine rubber stamper Betsy Perez is tied in third place with Isaiah Mosley.

More than 350 answered the questions in English. A little more than 100 answered in Spanish. So, basically, the incumbent who spent more than $260 a vote two years ago and who has a staff “branding” consultant and hundreds of thousands of dollars at his disposal — spending $340,000 so far without counting the shady PAC money — is basically head to head with a virtual unknown who had spent $4,300 as of Oct. 2.

Talk about rejection. Ouch.

Here for your enjoyment, are the Survey Monkey graphs in this snapshot of a survey.