Miami Dolphins deal is gamble or inside knowledge

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Even without knowing whether or not the state legislature will give the needed green light, the owner of the Miami Dolphins and Sun Life Stadium will have to plunk down $4.8 million this week to go to the cost of a referendum vote if they want the public to pay for up to half of the facilitity’s renovations.

Do Stephen Ross and Mike Dee must know something we don’t?

Part of the deal hammered out between the Dolphins people and the very motivated Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, a deal approved by the county commission Wednesday in an 8-3 vote, calls for the team’s organization to deposit almost $5 million into an account by Friday to defer costs of a special election on May 14. After all, absentee ballots would hit mailboxes April 24, which is less than a couple of weeks away and before the first public hearing on the matter. But more on that later.

This money, by the way, this non-refundable $4.8 million, is ours to keep even if the state legislature kills any bill to increase the tourist bed tax. Ladra says “increase” even though the ballot language doesn’t because I’ve never heard the term “tax addition,” but more on that later.

Maybe Gimenez is brilliant after all.

Or does the mayor and Stephen Ross and Mike Dee know something we don’t?

This seeming act of confidence might lead some to believe that the Dolphins people — through their lobbyist Ron Book — have the votes counted and think they have the appropriations they need, which include a $3 million a year tax rebate that is, indeed, our money, not the tourists’ money.

A voice in Ladra’s head says, “Se cae de la mata.”

But do they?

Gimenez said at the special meeting Wednesday that the legislation had seemed like more of a longshot earlier, not now. “It looks like it has a reasonable chance of success,” the mayor said in a press conference after the vote.

State Rep. Carlos Trujillo, one of the main Dolphins deal’s biggest detractors, says they do not.

“No way he has 61 votes he needs to pass it,” he told Ladra late Wednesday. “They must feel confident if they are depositing the money. But reality and perception are two very different things.”

Trujillo and State Rep. Michael Bileca (R-Pinecrest) have apparently been working their colleagues and he says that the bill has been unifying in a bipartisan sense. Not only are there a bunch if not all the Democrats against it, but there are a good number of Republicans also, Trujillo said.

In addition, the state rep says, there are two things against the Dolphins in Tallahasee. One is that the clock is ticking.

“Time is not on their side. We adjourn May 3 no matter what,” Trujillo said.

The other is that there are two completely different bills, one in the House and one in the Senate. And the Senate bill is one that deals with five professional sports teams to the tune of half a billion dollars. (Read: Not gonna happen).

So, do Stephen Ross and Mike Dee know something we don’t? Or is this a way to apply additional pressure, increase their leverage with the legislature? Not only do they have a referendum process already in place, ladies and gentlemen, and the approval of the county board of elected leaders, but they also dropped a non refundable cool half mil on the county to pay for any costs related to their welfare for a billionaire train.

“Reality and perceptions are two different things,” Trujillo said, adding that for them, it’s not that big an investment. I mean, I know that Ross isn’t digging in his couch cushions, but it’s not chump change either.

“They’re buying a lotto ticket,” Trujillo said. “You might win. You might not. But you don’t really lose.”

If you think about it like that, $5 million is probably about 1 % of what they stand to gain, after increased profits et al, or thereabouts, right?

“If you win, you hit the jackpot,” Trujillo said. “If you don’t, it’s an accounting error at this point.”

I’m routing for the accounting error.